Experts have termed the Covid-19 cases in Kerala as concerning, citing the state's daily reporting of nearly 20,000 new cases. Though not yet serious, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have also seen a modest increase in daily cases.
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With Kerala
once again becoming a hotspot of Covid-19 infection, adjacent states Karnataka
and Tamil Nadu have tightened restrictions since these two states have also
reported an increase in the number of Covid-19 cases, but not to the same
extent as Kerala. On Friday night, a central team arrived in
Thiruvananthapuram. The crew will travel to the state's ten worst-affected
areas.
Is this start of the
third wave?
According to
the health ministry, the second wave of the pandemic, which peaked in May, is
still ongoing, with Kerala, Maharashtra, and other northern areas reporting a
steady number of daily infections, while the situation in other states is
better. Government specialists have stated that the situation is still under
control and that whether it is a fresh wave or a protracted second wave will be
determined after several weeks of monitoring the situation. Bharati Pravin
Pawar, Minister of State for Health, addressed the Lok Sabha on Friday that the overall trend of Covid-19 is exhibiting a continuous and significant reduction.
Corona 3rd wave in Kerala
According to
data, Kerala was not out of the second wave of covid, although during June last
week, the state's test positive percentage decreased to 9.44 %. The number of
infections each day has fallen to 8,000. The number of daily infections has
steadily increased in July. Kerala reported 22,129 new cases on July 28. On
July 29, the number had risen to 24,064 on July 30, about 20,772 additional
cases had been recorded. Kerala's state government has declared a weekend
curfew.
If someone
looks at the current Covid figure, one may assume so. But, a glance at the most
recent national serosurvey reveals a quite different picture. Following the
release of the nationwide serosurvey's primary findings last week, the Narendra
Modi administration has provided a statistical breakdown of the survey.
According to the data, Kerala, which accounts for half of all new cases, has
just 44% of its population exposed to coronavirus. Madhya Pradesh, on the other
hand, has a figure of 79%.
This simply
indicates two things:
1. Because
fewer people have been affected, a broader population is vulnerable to the
virus. As a result, the number of new instances has increased.
2. Kerala
detects and reports coronavirus infections significantly more quickly than
other states. According to an Indian Express article, earlier serosurveys
revealed that one in every 26 cases was discovered across the country. In
Kerala, this number was one in every five.
Corona 3rd wave in Karnataka
In Bengaluru
Urban, Shivamogga, Kodagu, and Chikmagalur, the rate of positive is increasing.
On July 29, Karnataka confirmed 2,052 new cases, a 34% increase over the
previous day's total (1,531). The state recorded 1,890 new illnesses on July
30.
The positive
rate (1.30%) is much below the dangerous rate, but the state is already on high
alert since there is a significant risk of cases crossing over from Kerala into
Karnataka.
The state govt
has directed district officials to implement restrictions as needed." it
has been noticed that the number of new cases in the surrounding areas, as well
as in a few locations within the city, has increased." state, which
necessitates strict monitoring and severe micro-containment zones,"
according to an order signed by senior secretary N Manjunatha Prasad. The
Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike has been charged with closely monitoring
Bengaluru cases.
Corona 3rd wave in Tamil
Nadu.
The Tamil Nadu government has recorded an increase in the number of Covid-19 cases and has
extended some current limits to prevent overcrowding at a time when neighboring
Kerala is facing a new issue. Tamil Nadu recorded 1,947 illnesses on Friday.
Tamil Nadu recorded 1,859 new cases on Thursday.
The state
administration has also urged health experts not to suggest home quarantine for
the time being so that authorities can determine if there is a significant
spike in hospitalization statistics.
Why corona cases are
increasing in Kerala?
According to
statistical analysis, the Covid-19 infection has regained momentum and is
spreading at a little faster rate across the nation than it did between May 15
and June 26, with Kerala continuing to have the fastest rate of virus
transmission.
Kerala, the state
with the largest load of active Covid-19 in the country right now, has the
highest R-value, or reproductive factor, according to a study conducted by
experts at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai. In Kerala, the
R-value is 1.11, which implies that one sick person spreads the illness to more
then one person and that every 100 infected people transfer the virus to 111
people.
In the final
week of July, the country's overall R factor remained 0.95. How important is
the R factor? The R factor represents the number of persons who can be infected
by a single Covid-infected person. This is a logical computation. When the
value is less than one, for example, 0.95, it implies that for every 100
infected persons, the illness spreads to 95 additional people. Scientists have
indicated that as long as the number is less than one, new infections will be
fewer than existing illnesses, and the aggregate number of cases would
decrease.
Is Kerala the state
with the least immunity to Covid-19?
While the national
R-value is less than one, Kerala's R-value is greater than one, and is the
highest in the country, according to the Institute of Mathematical Sciences.
The R-values of Pune and Delhi is close to 1, while the majority of the
northeast states have R-values surpassing 1, according to the institution,
which also stated that the R factor, which had risen during the height of the second wave of the epidemic is now increasing again.
Is the third wave of
Covid coming to India?
Dr. Samiran
Panda, the Indian Council of Medical Research's Head of Epidemiology and
Infectious Diseases warned that the third wave of COVID 19 might strike India
by the end of August, but that it can be prevented. The third wave may occur
near the end of August, although it is not guaranteed.
How is COVID-19
transmitted?
COVID-19
spreads when humans breathe in polluted air containing droplets and tiny
airborne particles. The risk of inhaling these is greatest when individuals are
close together, although they can be breathed across greater distances,
especially indoors.
