Is corona 3rd wave coming in India? Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka are on high alert as diseases spread.


Experts have termed the Covid-19 cases in Kerala as concerning, citing the state's daily reporting of nearly 20,000 new cases. Though not yet serious, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have also seen a modest increase in daily cases.

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With Kerala once again becoming a hotspot of Covid-19 infection, adjacent states Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have tightened restrictions since these two states have also reported an increase in the number of Covid-19 cases, but not to the same extent as Kerala. On Friday night, a central team arrived in Thiruvananthapuram. The crew will travel to the state's ten worst-affected areas.

Is this start of the third wave?

According to the health ministry, the second wave of the pandemic, which peaked in May, is still ongoing, with Kerala, Maharashtra, and other northern areas reporting a steady number of daily infections, while the situation in other states is better. Government specialists have stated that the situation is still under control and that whether it is a fresh wave or a protracted second wave will be determined after several weeks of monitoring the situation. Bharati Pravin Pawar, Minister of State for Health, addressed the Lok Sabha on Friday that the overall trend of Covid-19 is exhibiting a continuous and significant reduction.

Corona 3rd wave in Kerala

According to data, Kerala was not out of the second wave of covid, although during June last week, the state's test positive percentage decreased to 9.44 %. The number of infections each day has fallen to 8,000. The number of daily infections has steadily increased in July. Kerala reported 22,129 new cases on July 28. On July 29, the number had risen to 24,064 on July 30, about 20,772 additional cases had been recorded. Kerala's state government has declared a weekend curfew.

If someone looks at the current Covid figure, one may assume so. But, a glance at the most recent national serosurvey reveals a quite different picture. Following the release of the nationwide serosurvey's primary findings last week, the Narendra Modi administration has provided a statistical breakdown of the survey. According to the data, Kerala, which accounts for half of all new cases, has just 44% of its population exposed to coronavirus. Madhya Pradesh, on the other hand, has a figure of 79%.

This simply indicates two things:

1. Because fewer people have been affected, a broader population is vulnerable to the virus. As a result, the number of new instances has increased.

2. Kerala detects and reports coronavirus infections significantly more quickly than other states. According to an Indian Express article, earlier serosurveys revealed that one in every 26 cases was discovered across the country. In Kerala, this number was one in every five.

Corona 3rd wave in Karnataka

In Bengaluru Urban, Shivamogga, Kodagu, and Chikmagalur, the rate of positive is increasing. On July 29, Karnataka confirmed 2,052 new cases, a 34% increase over the previous day's total (1,531). The state recorded 1,890 new illnesses on July 30.

The positive rate (1.30%) is much below the dangerous rate, but the state is already on high alert since there is a significant risk of cases crossing over from Kerala into Karnataka.

The state govt has directed district officials to implement restrictions as needed." it has been noticed that the number of new cases in the surrounding areas, as well as in a few locations within the city, has increased." state, which necessitates strict monitoring and severe micro-containment zones," according to an order signed by senior secretary N Manjunatha Prasad. The Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike has been charged with closely monitoring Bengaluru cases.

Corona 3rd wave in Tamil Nadu.

The Tamil Nadu government has recorded an increase in the number of Covid-19 cases and has extended some current limits to prevent overcrowding at a time when neighboring Kerala is facing a new issue. Tamil Nadu recorded 1,947 illnesses on Friday. Tamil Nadu recorded 1,859 new cases on Thursday.

The state administration has also urged health experts not to suggest home quarantine for the time being so that authorities can determine if there is a significant spike in hospitalization statistics.

Why corona cases are increasing in Kerala?

According to statistical analysis, the Covid-19 infection has regained momentum and is spreading at a little faster rate across the nation than it did between May 15 and June 26, with Kerala continuing to have the fastest rate of virus transmission.

Kerala, the state with the largest load of active Covid-19 in the country right now, has the highest R-value, or reproductive factor, according to a study conducted by experts at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai. In Kerala, the R-value is 1.11, which implies that one sick person spreads the illness to more then one person and that every 100 infected people transfer the virus to 111 people.

In the final week of July, the country's overall R factor remained 0.95. How important is the R factor? The R factor represents the number of persons who can be infected by a single Covid-infected person. This is a logical computation. When the value is less than one, for example, 0.95, it implies that for every 100 infected persons, the illness spreads to 95 additional people. Scientists have indicated that as long as the number is less than one, new infections will be fewer than existing illnesses, and the aggregate number of cases would decrease.

Is Kerala the state with the least immunity to Covid-19?

While the national R-value is less than one, Kerala's R-value is greater than one, and is the highest in the country, according to the Institute of Mathematical Sciences. The R-values of Pune and Delhi is close to 1, while the majority of the northeast states have R-values surpassing 1, according to the institution, which also stated that the R factor, which had risen during the height of the second wave of the epidemic is now increasing again.

Is the third wave of Covid coming to India?

Dr. Samiran Panda, the Indian Council of Medical Research's Head of Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases warned that the third wave of COVID 19 might strike India by the end of August, but that it can be prevented. The third wave may occur near the end of August, although it is not guaranteed.

How is COVID-19 transmitted?

COVID-19 spreads when humans breathe in polluted air containing droplets and tiny airborne particles. The risk of inhaling these is greatest when individuals are close together, although they can be breathed across greater distances, especially indoors.



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